On Sunday, February 27, 2023, astronomers found a brand new asteroid that they’ve labeled 2023DW. At this second, ESA’s Near-Earth Objects Coordination Center is itemizing the asteroid as having a 1-in-680 probability of placing Earth on February 14, 2046. That’s a snug 99.86% probability that 2023DW will miss Earth. However, nonetheless, there’s a number of chatter about this asteroid.
And, as sometimes occurs, as additional observations refine our information of the asteroid’s orbit, we’ll possible be taught the prospect of the asteroid’s lacking us in 23 years is even larger than that. It’s attainable we’ll be taught there’s no probability the asteroid will strike us.
As of Saturday morning, March 4, 2023, the evaluation of its orbit was based on simply 55 observations spanning 3.9338 days, by March 2, 2023.
As a thought experiment, Italian astronomer Piero Sicoli did his personal math to determine the percentages of affect and the attainable location of the place the strike can be. He shared his outcomes on Twitter:
#2023DW. With simply 3 days of arc, I discovered about 1 in 400 probability of affect on Feb. 14, 2046 (JPL 1/770). Absolutely this risk will quickly be dominated out, nonetheless, as an train, I calculated the place the asteroid would possibly fall if this risk occurred. pic.twitter.com/ldlSYJMvMz
— PS (@Piero_Sicoli) March 2, 2023
Last chance to get a moon phase calendar! Only a few left.
Extra on asteroid 2023DW
So all of those outcomes are extraordinarily preliminary, with so few observations.
However, that mentioned, as of this second, astronomers are estimating the asteroid is 165 ft (50 meters) in diameter. (Watch a video of size comparisons in asteroids.) Whereas 50 meters isn’t something close to a planet-ending-sized rock, it might go away a mark in no matter area it hit, if certainly it ought to strike.
Actually, the Chelyabinsk meteor – which exploded within the air over Russia in 2013 – was a bit of below half the scale of the estimate for 2023DW.
Presently a 1 on the Torino scale
Additionally, 2023DW at present has a Torino rating of 1. That’s an exceedingly uncommon rating. However even the very uncommon Torino rating of 1 (as a substitute of 0) is nothing to be anxious about. A rating of 1 means:
A routine discovery during which a go close to Earth is predicted that poses no uncommon degree of hazard. Present calculations present a collision is extraordinarily unlikely with no trigger for public consideration or public concern. New telescopic observations very possible will result in reassignment to Stage 0.
It’s not utterly uncommon for newly found asteroids with unsure orbits to make the listing of dangerous objects. Happily, this one is small and already has a really low chance of hitting Earth.
Actually, just a bit greater than a month in the past, newly found asteroid 2023BU handed (with out incident) solely 3% of the moon’s common distance from Earth.
Backside line: Astronomers are monitoring the newly found asteroid 2023DW. It has a 1-in-680 probability of placing Earth on February 14, 2046. That’s a snug 99.86% probability that 2023DW will miss Earth.
